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Op-ed Yet More Evidence that Pay Is Going Nowhere Fast
David G. Blanchflower — November 24, 2014
The latest data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week shows that, adjusted for inflation, real weekly earnings decreased by 1.6 percent compared to 2013.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Pacific Alliance and Mercosur: Narrowing the Gap?
Barbara Kotschwar — November 24, 2014
On November 24, 2014, Chile's president, Michele Bachelet, will host a meeting between the Pacific Alliance and Mercosur trading blocs. The aim of the meeting is to explore ways to increase trade ties between the blocs. The unstated aim is to send a political signal that relations are well betwee ...

Op-ed China's Property Market Set for Correction, Not Collapse
Kent Troutman — November 24, 2014
The real estate sector in China has been called the most important in the world. It accounts for over 16 percent of China's GDP and is the largest source of marginal global demand for commodities. To put it in context, investment in Chinese residential real estate in 2013 was nearly equal to the combined total economic output of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan.

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Human Rights Roundup (I)
Stephan Haggard — November 24, 2014
Last week, we reported on the extraordinary UN vote on the Commission of Inquiry report. Despite a North Korean charm offensive and a Cuban amendment that would have stricken referral to the UN Security Council, the resolution passed with a very large ...

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview A Breakthrough on Trade
Cathleen Cimino — November 21, 2014
Cathleen Cimino explains why a new technology agreement with China and a compromise over India’s food subsidies has revived the Obama administration’s trade agenda.

Op-ed How to Increase Trade between China and the United States
Sean Miner — November 21, 2014
It's time to step up trade negotiations with China and lay the foundation of a future where China and the United States trade freely with each other.

Policy Brief 14-25 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014 [pdf]
William R. Cline — November 21, 2014
All four of the major economies—China, the euro area, the United States, Japan—remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs); however, a continued decline in the euro and the yen could push the US economy to an excessive deficit.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch What a Ukrainian Financial Meltdown Might Look Like
Anders Aslund — November 21, 2014
On top of all its other problems, Ukraine is at risk of a financial meltdown. A question remains, however: What form would it take? Presumably it would be reminiscent of the Russian financial crash of August 1998—with default, high inflation, a frozen banking system, falling output, and ...

Working Paper 14-11 Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises [pdf]
Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio — November 21, 2014
Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio analyze the resilience of Latin American countries to the global financial crisis and find that effective macroeconomic policies were key to good economic performance.

News Release C. Fred Bergsten Awarded the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany
November 20, 2014
WASHINGTON—The Peterson Institute for International Economics is pleased to announce that its founding director, C. Fred Bergsten, has been awarded the Officer's Cross of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany. On behalf of Ge ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Are Russia's Usable Reserves Running Dangerously Low?
Anders Aslund — November 20, 2014
Russia is heading toward a serious financial squeeze next year, despite the confident statements of President Vladimir Putin. The official figures accounting for Russia's international reserves show a dramatic decline in international reserves, but an examination of the numbers reveals that the s ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Double Win for the Trade Liberalization in Bali
Cathleen Cimino — November 19, 2014
Two recent developments have the trade world buzzing and for good reason: the US-China agreement on tariff liberalization as part of the expanded Information Technology Agreement (ITA) and the US-India resolution to the impasse over the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). These two agreements, al ...

Testimony Ukraine: How It Can Combat Corruption
Anders Aslund — November 19, 2014
Ukraine needs all the international support it can get to fight its imminent financial crisis and internal corruption, and the United States has a major interest in Ukraine's success.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The New Ukrainian Government Must Save the Country
Anders Aslund — November 19, 2014
Ukraine is in a vicious financial crisis. Threatened constantly by Russian military aggression, the country faces a financial meltdown within the next four months. At the end of October, its international reserves fell to $12.6 billion, below the threshold considered critical for solvency. The hr ...

China Economic Watch Chart of the Week: China Maintains Commitment to Reduce Financial Risks
Ryan Rutkowski — November 18, 2014
Last week, the Peoples Bank of China released total social financing data showing credit growth continued to slow in October. Credit growth in the first ten months of the year wa ...

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Peterson Institute for International Economics Announces New Funding Disclosure Steps [pdf]

A newly posted document gives our Statement of Principles, Facts about Our Funding, and charts and lists indicating funding sources and amounts in 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

RECENT EVENTS

 

José Viñals

Global Financial Outlook: Challenges for Banks and Risks from Shadow Banks

José Viñals, financial counsellor and director of the monetary and capital markets department at the IMF, speaks at the Peterson Institute.

Patrick Low

Global Value Chains, Megaregionals, and Prospects for Multilateral Trade Cooperation

PIIE and the World Bank Group cohost a discussion with Jeffrey J. Schott and Patrick Low on multilateral trade.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

What Lies Ahead for the Global Economy: A BRICS Perspective

Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, delivered the Peterson Institute's tenth Whitman Lecture.

C. Fred Bergsten

Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States

Coauthors C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean Miner present the conclusions of their latest book. Myron Brilliant, US Chamber of Commerce, provided comments.

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