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Working Paper 05-7

What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

by Morris Goldstein, Peterson Institute for International Economics

July 26, 2005

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Morris GoldsteinIf there were a new emerging-market financial crisis, how would it start and spread, and which economies would be most vulnerable? Goldstein concludes that a parallel growth slowdown in China and the United States, along with deterioration in global financial conditions linked to a disorderly correction of global payments imbalances, could put a group of emerging markets on the threshold of crisis. He gauges the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks: a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures on monetary and fiscal policies.


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