The "We begin bombing in five minutes" contest

April 18, 2012 6:30 AM

Following the North Korean missile test, the news is full of speculation (including by yours truly) that the next shoe to drop will be a nuclear test.  So we are starting the North Korea: Witness to Transformation "We begin bombing in five minutes" contest.  (Those too young to get the reference, just google it.)  The reader who most accurately predicts the next North Korean nuclear test wins an autographed copy of Witness to Transformation. One entry per reader, please.



I'd say two weeks from now. If I'm the only one replying, I will still win :D


2 July 2012


June 15, 2012


13 September 2012


May 28, 2012 (Memorial Day). The Norks like U.S. holidays.

Stefan Gweni

May 3, just after communist Labor Day?


I'll be bold and say April 23, 2012.

They like to do their tests on Mondays and they need to act fast after the failed missile test. This spring is the best bet I guess. During summer the world wide attention is too low and a test in autumn might be a boost for Park Geun-Hye. But then again, they might prefer an external enemy (scapegoat) over unconditional aid.


May 18, 2012

Scott B.

My bet: July 27, 2012

machiko hollifield

hi, steve, this is machiko from Dallas, tx.
I found an interesting article about N. Korean Satelite. Let me know what do you think about this article. It's a google translation, but I thought it's not so bad as a translation. If you have hard time understanding, let me know.

Basically, it's actully a success, it's a test of EMP simulation. very interesting.


May 5, 2012

Yong Kwon

July 4, 2012

Pink Man

4 May 2012, 10:46AM, HEU bomb, 15kt yield.

Pyo Resident

I will be the dreamer: not this year. China threatened to make life really difficult; KJE says "why dont we love each other?", etc, etc.

Andrew Logie

Yesterday! (we won't hear about it until the day after!)

Leonid Petrov

“We begin bombing in five minutes” - a bad taste joke! North Koreans will not test nuclear weapons this year since 2012 is the election year in South Korea and the US. Ask Steve Chung (my PhD student) why. But next year, maybe...


I have checked my crystal ball, and it said to me, unequivocally, that North Korea will make its third nuclear test on Jun 18 2012. My crystal ball never fails.


7 June 2012


May 1, 2012


Friday 27 April 10am.


Thursday, May 3 at 4:29PM EST


Is this competition still open? 29 May 6am.


I mean 29 April.

Matthew Clayton

Although the American Independence Day seems like a possible date, I think it is too far away after the failed missile test. I think tomorrow, May 1st, the International Labour Day, is more likely. It is an international day and is also early in the week, on a Tuesday.

Chris Nelson

Marc...undoubtedly while I am in the ROK on a boondoggle, May I pick the 16th...Wednesday. Chris

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