Peterson Institute for International Economics

Shipping containers await to be unloaded at the port of Oakland in California. May 2025.

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Trump's new tariffs over forced labor are unlikely to survive a court challenge

The Trump administration characterizes its new near-global tariffs as an effort to combat forced labor. But they represent another case of presidential overreach that the Supreme Court would likely strike down, Alan Wm. Wolff writes.

DPA/Christian Charisius

Photo Credit: DPA/Christian Charisius

RealTime Economics

“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1

Kimberly Clausing (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

July 30, 2026

An aerial photo shows containers at a terminal in China. December 2025.

Sipa USA/CFOTO

Photo Credit: Sipa USA/CFOTO

Working Papers

How did Trump’s 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US-China supply chains?

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

July 30, 2026

University students walk in front of the Peter J. Shields Library on the campus of the University of California, Davis. April 2025.

ZUMA Press Wire/Ruaridh Stewart

Photo Credit: ZUMA Press Wire/Ruaridh Stewart

RealTime Economics

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE)

July 27, 2026

Cargo ships are loaded with containers at a port near Sao Paulo, Brazil.

REUTERS/Paulo Whitaker

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Paulo Whitaker

RealTime Economics

The forced labor case against Brazil is not about forced labor

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

July 23, 2026

What's New

How did Trump’s 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US-China supply chains?

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

July 2026

“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1

Kimberly Clausing (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

July 30, 2026

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE)

July 27, 2026

The forced labor case against Brazil is not about forced labor

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

July 23, 2026

PIIE Charts

China's private sector keeps expanding in 2026, while more tech manufacturers climb into the top ranks

Tianlei Huang (PIIE) and Nicolas Véron (PIIE)

July 30, 2026

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

July 20, 2026

China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize

Shoumitro Chatterjee (Johns Hopkins University) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

June 30, 2026

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 22, 2026

Trade Winds

The Strait of Hormuz closure: What happens to trade and shipping?

August 19, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Simon J. Evenett (IMD Business School), and Dorota Lost-Siemińska (International Maritime Organization)

Aug

Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts

November 17, 9:00 AM EST to November 18, 2026, 5:00 PM EST

Nov

US Federal Reserve

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 2026

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, DC. Photo taken on June 14, 2022.

Amid wartime disruptions, most emerging-market central banks will follow the Fed

Alfredo Mendoza-Fernández (University of California, Berkeley), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) and Serra Pelin (PIIE)

April 23, 2026

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

Tariffs

How did Trump’s 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US-China supply chains?

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

July 2026

“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1

Kimberly Clausing (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

July 30, 2026

The forced labor case against Brazil is not about forced labor

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

July 23, 2026

Inflation

A view of Buenos Aires in Argentina at sunset. April 2026.

Argentina: The challenge and the opportunity

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

July 2026

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

China

How did Trump’s 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US-China supply chains?

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

July 2026

Close up view of a smartphone displaying "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) in front of blurred flags of the United States and China, illustrating technological competition between the two countries. June 2026.

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing, met to focus on trade, regional security, and strengthening bilateral ties between the world’s two largest economies. May 2026.

Why the US-China trade war lacks the guardrails of the past

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

June 29, 2026

In The News

Understanding the Post-American World Economy: PIIE’s Adam Posen explains

via CNBC

feat. Adam S. Posen

US officials compiling 'menu' of Spanish goods, as Trump weighs embargo

via POLITICO

feat. Chad P. Bown

Will AI drive a global boom or a bust? IMF report warns of economic threats

via Straight Arrow News

feat. Monica de Bolle

A Canadian company wants to open North America’s largest nickel mine in Southern Oregon

via Oregon Public Broadcasting

feat. Cullen S. Hendrix

Resources

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

PIIE Chart

Subscribe to PIIE Insider!

US Federal Reserve

Tariffs

Inflation

China

Resources

Title Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Title US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Title Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Title The future of the USMCA

Title What Is Globalization?

Title Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Title
The future of the USMCA

Title
What Is Globalization?

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s