PIIE Briefing
Image Source:
REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
Featured
Olivier Blanchard (PIIE)
Will the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump lead to a recession or to an expansion? Before the election, many predicted a recession. But last week, markets clearly predicted an expansion.
Who is right? It is obviously hard to tell. Announced programs are never implemented as such. Political realities and the need for support by Congress force minor and major adjustments. It is safe to assume that only those measures not too inconsistent with the views of Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and their own constituencies will see the light of day.
Under this assumption, what happens to the US economy depends mainly on the balance between macroeconomic and trade measures.
Photo Credit:
REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
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