This study provides alternative estimates of the costs of greenhouse gas abatement through 2050 that would be necessary to limit CO 2 atmospheric concentrations to approximately 450 parts per million and limiting warming to 2 degrees C. Specific estimates are provided for 25 major economies (with the European Union as a single economy). Business as usual baselines are first developed, based on US Department of Energy projections through 2030 and on maintenance of country-specific trends in GDP growth, energy efficiency growth, and carbon-efficiency of energy growth thereafter. The central policy simulation then involves a "Copenhagen Convergence" path, in which major economies meet their Copenhagen (December 2009) pledges for 2020, and thereafter emissions per capita decline along a path that by 2050 results in equal per capita emissions in all countries.
Three abatement cost functions are used for calculating the resulting abatement costs: a model based on McKinsey & Co. estimates for 2030; the Nordhaus RICE model cost functions; and a set of summary cost regressions calculated from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-22) survey of abatement models. It is found that abatement costs should be moderate, reaching about one-fourth to two-thirds of one percent of GDP by 2030 and 1 to 2 percent of GDP by 2050. Costs can be reduced by international trading, but by less than generally perceived. A more ambitious early start on abatement than pledged at Copenhagen could reduce full-period costs. The study calculates corresponding magnitudes of investment for abatement as well as adaptation costs for developing countries, and identifies a benchmark of about $80 billion annually (excluding China) by 2020, lending support to the $100 billion target pledged for industrial country financial support by that year.
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3. Abatement Initiatives in the Copenhagen Accord
6. Trade and Timing
7. Estimating Investment Requirements and Adaption Costs
Appendix A Data Sources and Further Statistical Tables
Appendix B Estimating Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations under Alternative Emissions Paths
Appendix C Other Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
Appendix D Alternative Policy Paths for CO 2 Emissions, 2010–50
Appendix E Abatement Costs of the Alternative Policy Paths
Appendix F Cost-Minimizing Reallocation of Abatement over Time
Appendix G Abatement Cost Function Estimates Based on EMF 22