In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic pre-eminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China's to determine?
Subramanian's analysis is based on a new index of economic dominance grounded in a historical perspective. His examination makes use of real-world examples, comparing China's rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. His attempt to quantify and project economic and currency dominance leads him to the conclusion that China's dominance is not only more imminent, but also broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude, than is currently imagined. He explores the profound effect this might have on the United States, as well as on the global financial and trade system. Subramanian concludes with a series of policy proposals for other nations to reconcile China's rise with continued openness in the global economic order, and to insure against China becoming a malign hegemon.
Parts of 'Eclipse' read like a wonky version of 'Rising Sun,' Michael Crichton's 1992 novel of Japanese dominance over the U.S. when Tokyo was seen as speeding toward number one. But Mr. Subramanian is a first-class economist who uses his book to discuss provocatively U.S.-Chinese relations and the nature of economic power.
Wall Street Journal
If you want to understand the true magnitude of the shift in economic power that is currently changing the world, Eclipse is the book to read—provocative, well argued and elegantly written.
Liaquat Ahamed, Pulitzer Prize–winning author of Lords of Finance
Defying conventional wisdom, Eclipse not just vividly imagines, but provides a plausible scenario for, the replacement of the United States by China as the world's dominant economic power. It persuasively underlines the need for Washington to get its act together.
Francis Fukuyama, Stanford University and author of The End of History and the Last Man and The Origins of Political Order
Eclipse must be read for a refreshing and deep analysis of what may lie ahead. It is an extremely well written and thought provoking book.
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive, PIMCO and award-winning author of When Markets Collide
Eclipse is a fascinating read. Controversial, but meant to be, it has the potential to set the terms of our ongoing discussion on what is perhaps the hottest issue in the global economy—China's role. Its quantification of power alone will attract considerable interest.
Dani Rodrik, Professor of Economics, Harvard University and author of The Globalization Paradox
Selected chapters and sections are provided for preview only.
2. Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance
3. Quantifying Currency Dominance
4. Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity
5. Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance
6. A Historical Perspective on China's Distinctive Dominance
7. Guarding Against Rash Prophesying
8. Diagnosis of Economic Cooperation with a Rising China