The world is poised on the threshold of economic changes that will reduce the income gap between the rich and poor on a global scale while reshaping patterns of consumption. Rapid economic growth in emerging-market economies is projected to enable consumers worldwide to spend proportionately less on food and more on transportation, goods, and services, which will in turn strain the global infrastructure and accelerate climate change. The largest gains will be made in poorer parts of the world, chiefly sub-Saharan Africa and India, followed by China and the advanced economies. In this new study, Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro detail how this important moment in world history will unfold and serve as a warning to policymakers to prepare for the profound effects on the world economy and the planet.
What will the global economy look like in twenty years? I know of no better guide than World on the Move. Hellebrandt and Mauro combine global growth and demographic projections with evidence from household surveys on individual incomes and consumption-spending patterns to project future demands for transportation, food, infrastructure, and natural resources. A brilliant combination of macroeconomic and microeconomic analysis!
Charles I. Jones, Stanford University
This fascinating and very useful book provides a glimpse into the world of 2035. While many analyses of income distribution focus on widening inequality within many nations, the global income distribution is becoming more equal. This book will be of great interest to analysts and leaders in both the private and public sectors who want to know which industries are likely to grow and which are likely to experience relative decline.
Michael Kremer, Harvard University
Data disclosure: The data underlying this analysis are available here [zip].
1 The Changing Landscape of Global Consumption
2 Projecting Growth in Populations and Incomes
3 Measuring Income Distribution within Countries
4 Global Income Distribution from the Turn of the Century to 2035
5 How Will Changes in Population and Income
6 Projected Demand for Transportation Infrastructure through 2035
7 How Will Countries Build the Infrastructure They Need?
8 Challenges from Rising Consumption in the Next 20 Years