Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2017
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted its semiannual Global Economic Prospects session on October 5, 2017. David Stockton, PIIE senior fellow and chief economist at Monetary Policy Analytics, presented the US and global economic outlook. Prior to joining the Institute, Stockton oversaw the preparation of macroeconomic and financial market analyses and forecasts for the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee from 2000 to 2011.
The global economy appears to be sustaining the momentum gained at the turn of the year. Stockton discussed key drivers of that improvement and prospects for continued widespread global expansion over the next few years. He explored the factors likely to shape macroeconomic policies and the implications of those policies for the US economic outlook. In particular, he discussed the challenges posed for monetary policy by the surprisingly low inflation observed this year.
Nicholas R. Lardy, the Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow at the Institute, addressed the economic outlook for China, focusing on the rising financial risks associated with the rapid buildup of credit relative to GDP in recent years. These risks have led to downgrades of their sovereign rating as well as the ratings of some financial institutions.
José De Gregorio, PIIE nonresident senior fellow and former governor of the Central Bank of Chile, discussed the outlook for major Latin American economies, many of which have been going through a period of low growth or are emerging from recessions. He examined the capacity of monetary and fiscal policies to provide support to economic recoveries, especially amidst ongoing political turmoil in some key countries.