The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates

Peter A. Petri (PIIE) and Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center)
Working Paper
16-2
January 2016

The authors estimate the economic effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) using a comprehensive, quantitative trade model, updating results reported in Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2012) with recent data and information from the agreement. The new estimates suggest that the TPP will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP, and annual exports by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent of exports, over baseline projections by 2030, when the agreement is nearly fully implemented. Annual income gains by 2030 will be $492 billion for the world. While the United States will be the largest beneficiary of the TPP in absolute terms, the agreement will generate substantial gains for Japan, Malaysia, and Vietnam as well, and solid benefits for other members. The agreement will raise US wages but is not projected to change US employment levels; it will slightly increase "job churn" (movements of jobs between firms) and impose adjustment costs on some workers.

Data Disclosure: 

Data disclosure: The quantitative material from the TPP model developed by the authors, including detailed results, data and methodologies for computing elements of the model, are available at asiapacifictrade.org.